Search results for "financial networks"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods
2021
AbstractWe analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogou…
Contagion and Bank Runs in a Multi-Agent Financial System
2012
In this work we explore contagion from one institution to another that can stem from the existence of a network of financial contracts. In fact, in modern financial systems, an intricate web of claims and obligations links the balance sheets of a wide variety of intermediaries (banks, for instance) into a network structure of interdependencies that have created an environment for feedback elements to generate amplified responses to shocks to the financial system. Small shocks, which initially affect only a few institutions, can indeed spread by contagion to the rest of the financial sector and cause a crisis in the connected intermediaries. Whether the financial crisis does spread depends c…
Contagion in Bitcoin Networks
2019
12 pages, 6 figures. Paper accepted in 2nd Workshop on Blockchain and Smart Contract Technologies (BSCT 2019), workshop satellite of 22nd International Conference on Business Information Systems (BIS 2019); International audience; We construct the Google matrices of bitcoin transactions for all year quarters during the period of January 11, 2009 till April 10, 2013. During the last quarters the network size contains about 6 million users (nodes) with about 150 million transactions. From PageRank and CheiRank probabilities, analogous to trade import and export, we determine the dimensionless trade balance of each user and model the contagion propagation on the network assuming that a user go…
‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk
2012
A small segment of credit default swaps (CDS) on residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) stand implicated in the 2007 financial crisis. The dominance of a few big players in the chains of insurance and reinsurance for CDS credit risk mitigation for banks' assets has led to the idea of too interconnected to fail (TITF) resulting, as in the case of AIG, of a tax payer bailout. We provide an empirical reconstruction of the US CDS network based on the FDIC Call Reports for off balance sheet bank data for the 4th quarter in 2007 and 2008. The propagation of financial contagion in networks with dense clustering which reflects high concentration or localization of exposures between few parti…
The Structure of Financial Networks
2010
We present here an overview of the use of networks in Finance and Economics. We show how this approach enables us to address important questions as, for example, the structure of control chains in financial systems, the systemic risk associated with them and the evolution of trade between nations. All these results are new in the field and allow for a better understanding and modelling of different economic systems.
Bank-firm credit network in Japan. An analysis of a bipartite network
2015
We present an analysis of the credit market of Japan. The analysis is performed by investigating the bipartite network of banks and firms which is obtained by setting a link between a bank and a firm when a credit relationship is present in a given time window. In our investigation we focus on a community detection algorithm which is identifying communities composed by both banks and firms. We show that the clusters obtained by directly working on the bipartite network carry information about the networked nature of the Japanese credit market. Our analysis is performed for each calendar year during the time period from 1980 to 2011. Specifically, we obtain communities of banks and networks …
Toward Prediction of Financial Crashes with a D-Wave Quantum Annealer
2019
The prediction of financial crashes in a complex financial network is known to be an NP-hard problem, which means that no known algorithm can efficiently find optimal solutions. We experimentally explore a novel approach to this problem by using a D-Wave quantum annealer, benchmarking its performance for attaining a financial equilibrium. To be specific, the equilibrium condition of a nonlinear financial model is embedded into a higher-order unconstrained binary optimization (HUBO) problem, which is then transformed into a spin-1/2 Hamiltonian with at most, two-qubit interactions. The problem is thus equivalent to finding the ground state of an interacting spin Hamiltonian, which can be app…
Fair immunization and network topology of complex financial ecosystems
2023
The aftermath of the recent financial crisis has shown how expensive and unfair the stabilization of financial ecosystems can be. The main cause is the level of complexity of financial interactions that poses a problem for regulators. We provide an analytical framework that decomposes complex ecosystems in both their overall level of instability and the contribution of institutions to instability. These ingredients are then used to study the pathways of the ecosystems towards stability by means of immunization schemes. The latter can be designed to penalize institutions proportionally to their contribution to instability, and therefore enhance fairness. We show that fair immunization scheme…